PolitiFact 2024: Voters Prefer Facts

Voters tend to send the more truthful candidate to the US Senate. On average, winners perform better on PolitiFact checks than losers, incumbents better than challengers. But that may be changing.

To estimate a candidate’s truthfulness, Iffy gathered their fact-checked statements from PolitiFact (with permission), assigned a number to each statement’s rating — from false:

0.00

to true:

1.00

(see methodology), then averaged those numbers to get a “truth” score for a person or group of people.

PolitiFact has rated 30K+ statements since their 2008 start, including almost 7K made by former US Senate candidates. However we group them, winners have higher truth-scores than losers.

Candidates is the number of people in each group. Checks is the number of times PolitiFact rated statements by Group members. Score is the average of all their statements’ ratings (1 = best, 0 = worst).

PolitiFact scores: US Senate candidates, 2008–2024

Group	Candidates	Checks	Score
Winners	251	5,956	0.52
Losers	113	855	0.39
Incumbents	200	4,594	0.53
Challengers	93	887	0.36
Open Races	71	1,330	0.48
Independent	8	622	0.60
Democrat	178	2,361	0.58
Republican	177	3,827	0.37
Democrat Winners	121	1,975	0.60
Democrat Losers	57	386	0.51
Republican Winners	124	3,450	0.42
Republican Losers	53	377	0.25
All	364	6,811	0.48

Truth triumphs even in intra-party comparisons: GOP winners have higher truth-scores than GOP losers, ditto for Democrats. Our spreadsheet has the raw data and more comparisons (e.g., women are slightly more truthful than men).

In 109 of the 300 Senate races between 2008 and 2024, both top candidates had at least one PolitiFact-check. In those head-to-head matchups, truth wins again: The candidate with the higher score won 59% of the races, versus 39% won by the lower-scored contender.

Senate Races with two PolitiFact-checked candidates, 2008–2024

Group	Races	Checks	Score
Truth wins	64	1,676	0.60
Truth loses	43	433	0.25
Truth ties	2

Do voters value veracity when selecting senators? This study doesn’t tell us. But their vote totals do favor fact over fiction.

Are higher fact-check scores a predictor of electoral success? Perhaps, in the past, but since 2020 there’s been a trend toward less truthful Senators. The average Senate-candidate score was

0.54

in 2008. In 2024 it was

0.43

. In 2008 higher-scored contenders won 75% of their races (where both had been PolitiFact-checked). In 2024 they won only 50%.

That decline occurred despite the number of fact-checking sites rising during those years. Raising questions: Does truth in politics matter? Does how the media covers truth in politics matter? (Note: That same timespan also saw the rapid rise of politics in social media.)

The next chart lists all the above Senate races in which PolitiFact checked both candidates at least once.

The ✓ marks the winner, * an incumbent. The first number — and bar length — is their PolitiFact score. The second (in parens) is their total statements checked.

Our final chart lists all current US Senators (linked to their PolitiFact page) in order of their truth-scores — 81 have been PolitiFact-checked at least once, 19 have not (spreadsheet).

PolitiFact scores: US Senators, 2025

Candidate	Party	State	Checks	Score
John Fetterman	Democrat	Pennsylvania	1	1.00
Michael Bennet	Democrat	Colorado	5	0.85
Alex Padilla	Democrat	California	1	0.75
John Hickenlooper	Democrat	Colorado	3	0.75
Richard Blumenthal	Democrat	Connecticut	2	0.75
James Risch	Republican	Idaho	1	0.75
Angus King	Independent	Maine	1	0.75
Chris Van Hollen	Democrat	Maryland	4	0.75
Eric Schmitt	Republican	Missouri	1	0.75
Patty Murray	Democrat	Washington	2	0.75
Jeff Merkley	Democrat	Oregon	15	0.73
Jack Reed	Democrat	Rhode Island	7	0.71
Sheldon Whitehouse	Democrat	Rhode Island	25	0.71
Edward Markey	Democrat	Massachusetts	5	0.70
Amy Klobuchar	Democrat	Minnesota	20	0.70
Jim Justice	Republican	West Virginia	16	0.68
Mark Kelly	Democrat	Arizona	7	0.68
Ron Wyden	Democrat	Oregon	8	0.66
Elizabeth Warren	Democrat	Massachusetts	36	0.65
Cory Booker	Democrat	New Jersey	33	0.63
Kirsten Gillibrand	Democrat	New York	21	0.63
Tina Smith	Democrat	Minnesota	2	0.63
Mike Lee	Republican	Utah	2	0.63
Tim Kaine	Democrat	Virginia	58	0.63
John Barrasso	Republican	Wyoming	2	0.63
Mark Warner	Democrat	Virginia	22	0.61
Jeanne Shaheen	Democrat	New Hampshire	13	0.60
Jon Ossoff	Democrat	Georgia	6	0.58
Raphael Warnock	Democrat	Georgia	9	0.58
Markwayne Mullin	Republican	Oklahoma	3	0.58
Chuck Grassley	Republican	Iowa	8	0.56
Tammy Baldwin	Democrat	Wisconsin	63	0.56
Bernie Sanders	Independent	Vermont	176	0.56
Maggie Hassan	Democrat	New Hampshire	13	0.56
John Cornyn	Republican	Texas	38	0.54
Shelley Moore Capito	Republican	West Virginia	10	0.53
Chris Murphy	Democrat	Connecticut	13	0.52
Ruben Gallego	Democrat	Arizona	2	0.50
Adam Schiff	Democrat	California	2	0.50
Chris Coons	Democrat	Delaware	4	0.50
Brian Schatz	Democrat	Hawaii	1	0.50
Susan Collins	Republican	Maine	3	0.50
Gary Peters	Democrat	Michigan	2	0.50
Jacky Rosen	Democrat	Nevada	6	0.50
Maria Cantwell	Democrat	Washington	1	0.50
Richard Durbin	Democrat	Illinois	16	0.49
Rand Paul	Republican	Kentucky	63	0.49
Joni Ernst	Republican	Iowa	13	0.48
Charles Schumer	Democrat	New York	27	0.47
Mitch McConnell	Republican	Kentucky	36	0.46
Lindsey Graham	Republican	South Carolina	17	0.46
Josh Hawley	Republican	Missouri	15	0.43
Ron Johnson	Republican	Wisconsin	88	0.42
Tammy Duckworth	Democrat	Illinois	6	0.42
Catherine Cortez Masto	Democrat	Nevada	9	0.42
Rick Scott	Republican	Florida	184	0.40
Thom Tillis	Republican	North Carolina	16	0.39
John Thune	Republican	South Dakota	3	0.38
Katie Britt	Republican	Alabama	2	0.38
Ted Budd	Republican	North Carolina	9	0.33
Tim Scott	Republican	South Carolina	10	0.33
Cynthia Lummis	Republican	Wyoming	2	0.33
Tom Cotton	Republican	Arkansas	27	0.31
Ted Cruz	Republican	Texas	159	0.30
Marsha Blackburn	Republican	Tennessee	12	0.29
Dan Sullivan	Republican	Alaska	6	0.25
Ashley Moody	Republican	Florida	2	0.25
Elissa Slotkin	Democrat	Michigan	3	0.25
Steve Daines	Republican	Montana	1	0.25
James Lankford	Republican	Oklahoma	5	0.25
Kevin Cramer	Republican	North Dakota	5	0.20
Bill Cassidy	Republican	Louisiana	5	0.18
J.D. Vance	Republican	Ohio	21	0.18
Dave McCormick	Republican	Pennsylvania	6	0.17
Tommy Tuberville	Republican	Alabama	4	0.13
Roger Marshall	Republican	Kansas	2	0.13
Jim Banks	Republican	Indiana	1	0.00
Todd Young	Republican	Indiana	1	0.00
John Kennedy	Republican	Louisiana	1	0.00
Tim Sheehy	Republican	Montana	4	0.00
Bernie Moreno	Republican	Ohio	2	-0.05
Not Politifact-checked:
Lisa Murkowski	Republican	Alaska	0
John Boozman	Republican	Arkansas	0
Lisa Blunt Rochester	Democratic	Delaware	0
Mazie K. Hirono	Democratic	Hawaii	0
Mike Crapo	Republican	Idaho	0
Jerry Moran	Republican	Kansas	0
Angela D. Alsobrooks	Democratic	Maryland	0
Cindy Hyde-Smith	Republican	Mississippi	0
Roger F. Wicker	Republican	Mississippi	0
Deb Fischer	Republican	Nebraska	0
Pete Ricketts	Republican	Nebraska	0
Andy Kim	Democratic	New Jersey	0
Martin Heinrich	Democratic	New Mexico	0
Ben Ray Luján	Democratic	New Mexico	0
John Hoeven	Republican	North Dakota	0
Mike Rounds	Republican	South Dakota	0
Bill Hagerty	Republican	Tennessee	0
John R. Curtis	Republican	Utah	0
Peter Welch	Democratic	Vermont	0
Notes: The more times a politician was PolitiFact-checked, the more confident we can be the score reflects their overall accuracy. Zero under Checks means PolitiFact has yet to check that pol’s statements.

Methodology

The election results come from Wikipedia’s detailed tables on each US Senate election. (Also worth checking are the Open Secrets charts of incumbent Reelection Rates and Winning vs. Spending.)

The above numeric scores are derived from PolitiFact data (with permission), gathered in October 2024 (spreadsheet). Their ratings are as of then, not when they ran for Senate. Each person’s score is calculated by assigning a number value to each truth-rating level, as listed in the tables below, then averaging all their PolitiFact ratings.

PolitiFact ratings as scores

Rating	PolitiFact description	Score
True	The statement is accurate and there’s nothing significant missing.	1.00
Mostly True	The statement is accurate but needs clarification or additional information.	0.75
Half True	The statement is partially accurate but leaves out important details or takes things out of context.	0.50
Mostly False	The statement contains an element of truth but ignores critical facts that would give a different impression.	0.25
False	The statement is not accurate.	0.00
Pants on Fire	The statement is not accurate and makes a ridiculous claim.	-0.10
The negative “Pants” number makes below-zero scores possible.

PolitiFact has proven to be an essential tool in making democracy work. If you want to keep politics and facts together, please support PolitiFact (a project of the nonprofit Poynter Institute) with a tax-deductible contribution or membership.

This post updates our 2020 report. Thanks to Josef Verbanac and Claire Golding for editing and to Aaron Sharockman for PolitiFact permission. The top image is from a William Jennings Bryan campaign poster, “Shall the People Rule?” (circa 1900), at the Library of Congress.